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The US Midterm elections are upon us, and political betting opportunities abound. I give you the latest odds on my favorite 2022 Midterm predictions.
To say this is a crucial election that will determine the future of the United States for a long time to come is an understatement. The stakes are high in more ways than one, and my predictions for the Midterm reflect that.
Before I share my Midterm best bets, I have a quick disclaimer. I have no intention of pushing any political agenda here. My goal is to uncover good gambling opportunities.
Who will control the House in 2022?
Everybody knows that if one party controls the House and Senate; it can pretty much rubber stamp its agenda and pass whatever it wants into law. Right now, the Democrats control both, but according to the latest US Midterm 2022 odds, that’s set to change.
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
| Republican | -3000 | 96.8% |
| Democrat | +900 | 10% |
According to these odds, which I pulled from BetOnline.ag, Republican control of the house is a virtual certainty. Remember that elections are full of surprises, and you never know what’s going to happen until the votes are counted, but it doesn’t look good for the Democrats right now.
That said, other issues make me think these odds are slightly off. Many women will be motivated to vote because Roe vs. Wade was overturned. Never underestimate the power of the women’s vote.
This might not be enough to win, but the odds are worth a shot. That’s why I start my Midterm betting picks with a risky wager.
Midterm Elections 2022 Turnout
Plenty of Midterm prop bets are available online, and wagering on the turnout is one of them. If you take this bet, you’ll wager on whether the turnout will be greater than the 2018 turnout or not.
| Bet | Odds | Implied Probability |
| > than 2018 turnout | -900 | 90% |
| > than 2020 turnout | +500 | 16.7% |
Given the stakes in this election, for example, the debate around Roe vs. Wade, it’s virtually guaranteed that vast numbers of people will turn out to vote. Democrats are determined to deal a death blow to Trumpism, and Republicans are equally motivated for other reasons.
However, is it likely to exceed the Presidential election turnout in 2020? The election was portrayed as existential to the future of the United States, and it involved one of the most polarizing politicians in US history.
Probably not, but since it’s not worth betting at odds of -900, I’ll once again place a longshot bet on the turnout being greater than the 2020 turnout. I might lose this bet, but using free bets and bankroll management, it’s worth the risk.
Who will be the governor of Kansas?
I looked at some of the gubernatorial races, and there are very few close races. Most of them have odds wildly in favor of one candidate or another, meaning there’s not much point in betting on those races. However, one reasonably close race is in Kansas.
| Bet | Odds | Implied Probability |
| Republicans | -150 | 60% |
| Democrats | +115 | 46.5% |
| Any Other | +5000 | 2% |
This race is between Laura Kelly (Dem) and Derek Schmidt (Rep). Traditionally, Kansas is Republican, but as I mentioned earlier, the overturning of Roe vs. Wade hasn’t gone down well with a large chunk of American society.
Kansas rejected an abortion ban back in August. Governor Kelly also attracted a $4 billion Panasonic EV battery plant to the state, creating good-paying jobs. She’s seen as a middle-of-the-road candidate.
Republican challenger Schmidt has been hammering her on the cost of living crisis and has painted her as a liberal on team Biden. Given that his approval rating is 42.3%, that’s not a great look.
I truly believe the abortion issue is a way bigger factor than many are anticipating. Therefore, I think the Dems will take this race.
Who will win the Arizona Senate race?
There are few Senate races tighter than the Arizona race this year. It has become even tighter now that the Libertarian candidate has dropped out and endorsed Republican Blake Masters. It wasn’t long ago that the GOP wrote this race off, but now they’re back in it.
| Bet | Odds | Implied Probability |
| Republican | -120 | 54.5% |
| Democrat | +110 | 47.6% |
This race is classified as a ‘toss-up’ by the bookies, meaning it could go either way. Incumbent Mark Kelly was well in the lead not long ago, but dissatisfaction with President Biden’s job performance has put Masters back in the race.
For the GOP, this race is crucially important if they are to get a majority in the Senate again. If they can win Arizona and hold both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, they have a much better chance of winning the Senate back. Therefore, expect them to pour everything they’ve got into this race.
Who will represent New York’s 19th congressional district?
If you’re looking for a true toss-up election that could go either way when betting on the Midterm elections, look no further than the New York 19th congressional district race.
| Bet | Odds | Implied Probability |
| Josh Riley (D) | -120 | 54.5% |
| Marcus Molinaro (R) | -120 | 54.5% |
As the Midterm betting odds reflect, this is an insanely tight race. Voters in the Hudson Valley and Southern Tier chose Joe Biden in 2020, but a few things have changed since then, and so this race is neck and neck.
The key factor in this race is the economy. In an area renowned for its moderate politics on most issues, this race is all about inflation, taxes, and jobs.
While Biden called the economy “strong as hell” recently, his approval rating and other polls show voters don’t agree. Riley is one of the Democrats that will likely pay the price.
Where to Bet on the US Midterm Elections
I’ve given you my best 2022 Midterm predictions here. However, there are many other races to bet on. You can find a full list and make real money bets on any of them at top-rated sports betting sites.
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